28-point win? Once again, polls missed it {Chicago Sun-Times}
For those of us who obsessively read campaign blogs and watch an abnormal amount of cable chatter, the reality of this presidential season finds pollsters and pundits stuck on Mars while voters are on Venus.
So it was here in South Carolina this past week.
While polls had Obama somewhere between 8 and 15 points ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton, they also showed his white support dropping to 10 percent.
On Thursday, when I asked Obama to predict the outcome, he smiled and took the road of lowered expectations: "I think somebody will win by less than 10 points, how's that?"
Nobody -- nobody -- saw a margin of nearly 30 points.
News people and campaign operatives alike are horse-race-driven, conflict-craven, poll-possessed souls. It's in our DNA.
But the conflict, the negative ads and the over-the-top conduct of Bill Clinton backfired with voters.
And they put all of our political quarterbacking to shame.
Live from South Carolina, the Democratic Primary {The New York Times}
Wrapup - Mr. Obama had a huge win tonight in South Carolina, across the board, on demographics and geographics.
Here are some important numbers, from the exit polls: Mr. Obama got about 80 percent of the black vote and about 25 percent of the white vote. Blacks made up 55 percent of the total, which is up from the 47 percent of the vote in 2004, indicating a motivated Democratic base. Black women made up 35 percent of the total vote. Mrs. Clinton won only 20 percent of black women. White women made up 25 percent of the total vote. Mrs. Clinton won 42 percent of them.
Here’s something else to consider: Mr. Edwards won more white men than anyone else, drawing about 45 percent. But white men accounted for only 18 percent of the total (most white men here are Republicans). Only one state, Georgia, that votes on Feb. 5 has more black voters than South Carolina. A top adviser to the Clinton campaign tells us that they believe the significance of South Carolina will not become clear until Feb. 5, when states with lower percentages of black voters will have their say.
In the days ahead, look for Mr. Obama to try to expand his appeal to white voters while Mrs. Clinton will try to expand her appeal to younger women.
Why Obama won and what this win gets him {MSNBC}
There were two true stunners Saturday night: the size of Sen. Barack Obama’s margin of victory over Sen. Hillary Clinton — 28 percentage points — but just as significantly this number: total turnout for Democrats in their primary was greater than the turnout for the Republican primary in this state, which is one of the most loyally Republican in the nation.
Four years ago about 293,000 Democrats voted in the state’s primary: Saturday Obama alone got more than that number of votes.
Why did Obama win South Carolina and what does this triumph portend for future contests?
The Clintons Can't Spin Obama's Stunning Victory (New York Observer}
The Clinton campaign spent the last week frantically inveigling the media to attach an asterisk to the South Carolina results.
And it just blew up in their faces.
Right up until the very end, just hours before the polls closed, Bill Clinton—the same Bill Clinton who had previously summoned all the righteous indignation he could to proclaim his campaign's innocence in encouraging a racial divide—sought to chalk up his wife's looming defeat to identity politics.
"Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in '84 and '88," the former President reminded reporters just before the polls closed—even though no one had asked him about race.
But Jesse Jackson—whose victories came when South Carolina held caucuses, not primaries—never won like this (emphasis mine).
The South Carolina electorate was split almost exactly in half between whites and blacks, and as expected, Obama took the lion's share of the black vote—81 percent, according to exit polls (to Hillary's 17 percent).
But Obama also fared better—much better—than anticipated among white voters. John Edwards, native of rural Seneca, snagged 39 percent of the white vote, just ahead of Hillary's 36 percent. The other quarter, though, went to Obama, a showing that turned the primary into an all-out rout for the Illinois Senator. And, contrary to some expectations, black women were as loyal to Obama as black men.
A President Like My Father by Caroline Kennedy {New York Times}
Over the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.
My reasons are patriotic, political and personal, and the three are intertwined. All my life, people have told me that my father changed their lives, that they got involved in public service or politics because he asked them to. And the generation he inspired has passed that spirit on to its children. I meet young people who were born long after John F. Kennedy was president, yet who ask me how to live out his ideals.
Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible.
We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960.
Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama {Boston Globe}
Senator Edward M. Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama for president tomorrow, breaking his year-long neutrality to send a powerful signal of where the legendary Massachusetts Democrat sees the party going -- and who he thinks is best to lead it.
Kennedy confidantes told the Globe today that the Bay State's senior senator will appear with Obama and Kennedy's niece, Caroline Kennedy, at a morning rally at American University in Washington tomorrow to announce his support.
That will be a potentially significant boost for Obama as he heads into a series of critical primaries on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.
Kennedy believes Obama can "transcend race'' and bring unity to the country, a Kennedy associate told the Globe. Kennedy was also impressed by Obama's deep involvement last year in the bipartisan effort to craft legislation on immigration reform, a politically touchy subject the other presidential candidates avoided, the associate said.
The Media's Three-Fifths Compromise by Rikyrah {Jack and Jill Politics}
I was wondering about what subject to write about, and I got my
inspiration from reading some of the so-called Progressive blogs.
What upset me was the dismissiveness towards the South Carolina Primary.
A prevailing attitude comprised of, if Barack Obama wins South Carolina:
1. He only won because he's Black
2. It doesn't REALLY count as a win because of the sizeable Black population in South Carolina.
I'd like to concentrate on those two points.
1. He only won because he's Black
This
is condescending to the nth degree. For this to be the case, then that
would mean that Obama would have been leading in South Carolina from
the moment he announced in February 2007. And, the truth of the matter
is, the race in South Carolina, according to the polls, only has had
Obama in the lead beginning THIS MONTH- January 2008.
In November 2007, Hillary Clinton had a ten-point advantage; December 2007, Clinton and Obama were tied.
So, from February 2007 until December 2007, Barack Obama was trailing
Hillary Clinton in South Carolina. So, what happened in December 2007?
Did everyone Black in South Carolina JUST discover that Obama was Black
and said , ' I'ze gots to vote for the Black guy!'
Or,
could it be, as with Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Nevada, Senator Obama
began from Ground Zero - little national name recognition and no
organization. And, as with those other states, he began to build an
organization in South Carolina, from the ground up, and through
visiting and through campaign events, he began to become better known
and present himself as a viable candidate for President.
You mean, Obama, gasp, actually campaigned for the Black vote in South Carolina?
Indeed, he did.
Obama Ba-Rocks Clinton Out of South Carolina {Jack and Jill Politics}
- Obama won a plurality and majority of all voting ages except those 65 or older
- Obama got the church-goers
- Obama just owned the black vote, and across all ages. Blacks over 60 went to him 75%
- Obama got 61% of the vote for those making less than $15K
- Very interesting: Edwards pull more republicans (42) to Obama's 37 and Clinton's 20 but Obama got more indies
- Clinton won on the top quality being "experience" (83 percent)
- Oh and white votes: Clinton and Edwards 38, Obama 24
Another reporter asked what it said about Obama that it “took two people to beat him.” Clinton again passed. “That’s’ just bait, too. Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in '84 and '88. And he ran a good campaign. Senator Obama's run a good campaign here, he’s run a good campaign everywhere.”
The reference to Jackson seemed a way to downplay today's result in a state where a majority of voters are African American. Clinton was also asked today about charges of race baiting, and defended himself by citing testimony from John Lewis and Andrew Young, who marched with Martin Luther King. "I don't have to defend myself on civil rights," he said.
Someone tell Bill Clinton that NOT ALL BLACK PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES LOOK ALIKE.
Also, John Lewis and Andrew Young don't speak for ANYONE anymore.
Ass. Kicking.
Political Propoganda (It Needs to Stop) {Afrobella}
I got an e mail last week that really pissed me off. Allow me to vent.
I’m on the mailing list of this peace-love-and-Buddha place, and normally their e mails are about things like yoga classes and reiki sessions. But this one had an atypical subject line. It read “Muslims in England!” and there was only a sentence or so of actual text.
“Remember - Mr. Barack Obama was born and is a practicing Muslim when you view these pictures,” it read. And the photos were of Muslim protesters in London immediately following the offensive cartoon debacle, holding frightening signs that threatened to bring jihad, a new holocaust, and horrific terrorist acts to European soil.
So this hippie love-thy-neighbor business is sending out e mails comparing one of the Democratic front runners to incensed fundamentalist terrorists, and using all of the arguments that have been roundly debunked by Snopes and About.com’s urban Legends page. Sending these e mails out to hundreds of people on their mass media list. I couldn’t frickin’ believe what I was seeing.
The Clintons' Patronizing Strategy by Jonathan Alter {Newsweek}
The last major presidential candidate from Illinois, Adlai Stevenson, was approached by a voter in the 1950s. "Governor, you have the vote of every thinking American," she said. "That's nice," Stevenson replied. "But I need a majority."
Politics, as Bill Clinton said Tuesday in South Carolina, is "a contact sport." And while Barack Obama is trying hard to shed his professorial and all-too-Stevensonian air, he's just not a good enough eye-gouger at the line of scrimmage, especially with two people teaming up against him.
Obama's best hope is that Democratic voters aren't as dumb as Hillary and Bill Clinton think they are. The outcome of the primaries depends on whether, amid their busy lives, voters can get a general fix on who is more often telling the truth about the barrage of charges and countercharges.
This is ironic, because the way Bill Clinton survived impeachment was by betting on the intelligence of the American public. Now he's betting against it.
The Ideas Bill Forgot by E.J. Dionne, Jr. {Washington Post}
It was a remarkable moment: A young, free-thinking presidential hopeful named Bill Clinton sat down with reporters and editors at The Post inOctober 1991 and started saying things most Democrats wouldn't allow to pass their lips.
Ronald Reagan, Clinton said, deserved credit for winning the Cold War. He praised Reagan's "rhetoric in defense of freedom" and his role in "advancing the idea that communism could be rolled back."
"The idea that we were going to stand firm and reaffirm our containment strategy, and the fact that we forced them to spend even more when they were already producing a Cadillac defense system and a dinosaur economy, I think it hastened their undoing," Clinton declared.
Clinton was careful to add that the Reagan military program included "a lot of wasted money and unnecessary expenditure," but the signal had been sent: Clinton was willing to move beyond "the brain-dead politics in both parties," as he so often put it.
His apostasy was widely noticed. The Memphis Commercial Appeal praised Clinton a few days later for daring to "set himself apart from the pack of contenders for the Democratic nomination by saying something nice about Ronald Reagan." Clinton's "readiness to defy his party's prevailing Reaganphobia . . .," the paper wrote, "is one reason he's a candidate to watch."
I have been thinking about that episode ever since Hilary Clinton's campaign started unloading on Barack Obama for making statements about Reagan that were, if anything, more measured than Bill Clinton's 1991 comments. Obama simply acknowledged Reagan's long-term impact on politics and the fact that conservatives once constituted the camp producing new ideas, flawed though they were.
Obama's not particularly original insight was a central premise of Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign. Clinton argued over and over that Democrats could not win without new ideas of their own. To reread Clinton's "New Covenant" speeches from back then is to be reminded of how electrifying it was to hear a politician who was willing to break new ground.
That's why the Clintons' assault on Obama is so depressing. In many ways, Obama is running the 2008 version of the 1992 Clinton campaign. You have the feeling that if Bill Clinton did not have another candidate in this contest, he'd be advising Obama and cheering him on.
Obama:"I'm not going to back down" {Newsweek}
Jonathan Alter: You're clearly not comfortable taking part in what Bill Clinton called the "contact sport" of politics.
Barack Obama:
It's not my preference. Do you remember when [Michael] Jordan's Bulls
were playing the Detroit Pistons? They had the "Jordan Rules"
[defense]. [The Pistons] would just knock 'em around. They didn't care.
It wasn't a pretty sight. But until the Bulls learned to push back, it
was going to be hard for them to win. It's not something I shy away
from, but not something I relish. We're not going to back down. It's
part of what's at stake here: can we change our politics?



















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